This second bear will be with us until long after the Ukraine invasion has ended. We can surely expect the energy crisis component of the war to continue. We have no reliable data on lost lives and the value of destroyed man-made structures in this war, but we can be sure that each day that hostilities continue, the world is made poorer.Īnd, yes, people worldwide can feel the pain of high electricity and gas bills. But in blunt economic terms, each life forgone takes away hundreds of thousands of dollars in lost production and related happiness. If you have a good idea for a business and you can adapt it to be successful in a bad economy, starting that company is a smart idea, particularly if it’s in one of the. Within the generally excellent news coverage of the horrors of the invasion, not much attention has been given to the destruction of human and physical capital. While recessions are fraught with economic uncertainty and billions in lost money, they can be excellent opportunities to start a new business in the right industry. The second bear is the Russia-Ukraine war and related disruptions in energy markets. Thanks to central banks coordinated efforts, the global economy has not only recovered from the financial crisis, but enjoyed a good run of solid growth. But then, other things are rarely equal, are they? After all, there are two more bears to consider. It may recover in 2023, other things being equal. In a few words, the Great American Bread Machine – our economy – is still bent out of shape. That makes it tough to get meaningful GDP growth. Yes, we are no longer told about COVID-19 disasters on a daily basis, but we still cannot find a wide enough selection of new cars on dealer lots, there is a short supply of entry-level workers, there are lots of people who left the labor force and have not returned and there is a long waiting list for people who seek elective surgery.Įven worse, since the last folks to return to work are typically the least experienced, worker productivity is in a serious state of decline. What are those three bears that chased away our happier times? And when might they go back to the woods so that Goldilocks can find peace and happiness again?
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |